Of the three currently released papers authored by Sukbae Lee and Ji-hoon Kim related to LK-99, all three have a different third author.

The papers in question are:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037

http://journal.kci.go.kr/jkcgct/archive/articleView?artiId=ART002955269

Since a Nobel prize can only be award to three people, it is unclear which, if any, of the third authors are likely to recieve a Nobel if LK-99 reproduces.

If a Nobel prize is awarded to Sukbae Lee or Jihoon Kim for work directly related to LK-99, this market resolves in favor of any person other than those two who also simultaneously recieves that prize.

If a clear consensus emerges that LK-99 is uninteresting, or that all three papers are fraudulent, or if all three papers are withdrawn, or that a Nobel prize related to LK-99 is not forthcoming for any other reason, I will resolve this market N/A