“Responding to critics who say he doesn’t have any firsthand knowledge himself, Grusch told NewsNation he has finally received clearance from the Pentagon to disclose more of what he knows, which he plans to do in an op-ed in the coming weeks.”
Source: https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/david-grusch-ufo-uap-congress-transparency/
As described in the title.
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Time is running out on this one, so I created another for Q2:
https://manifold.markets/Ansel/will-david-grusch-publish-an-oped-r-4fc96598e4cc?r=QW5zZWw
@SteveSokolowski Maybe this one is a bit more interesting: https://manifold.markets/Ansel/which-publication-will-carry-david
I'm curious as to why people would bet NO in this market.
Why would he go on TV and state that he was going to write an op-ed, and then not do that? The market doesn't even specify a media outlet, so the media coverage bias around this topic won't hinder resolution. I think the actual question is whether the op-ed will truly say anything new.
@SteveSokolowski He might be intimidated into not publishing it, or delaying it. He might publish an op-ed and claim its firsthand knowledge but not provide any particulars. Literally saying “I have firsthand knowledge of NHI / NH tech and this is my op-ed” and not say anything else interesting. I don’t think this will happen, but if David Grusch does not specifically
1) Publish an op-ed
2) that contains his detailed testimony
3) that describes a firsthand experience with something
4) and that thing is clearly and obviously either NHI or NH tech
Then this market resolves no.
I will not bet on this market because clearly it’s a matter of judgement.