
What will the total off-Earth human population be at the end of 2030?
What will the total off-Earth human population be at the end of 2030?
4
310Ṁ1012030
21
expected
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This market will predict the total known human population living outside the volume contained by Earth's natural atmosphere at the end of the year 2030. The market will resolve based on the most authoritative and widely accepted report or data source available after December 31, 2030, which provides the total estimated off-Earth human population on that date. The market pertains only to the known human population living outside the volume contained by Earth's natural atmosphere and does not account for any potential discrepancies due to unknown or uncounted populations.
Edit: My go-to source for now is https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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