What will the total off-Earth human population be at the end of 2040?
Basic
24
แน€620
2040
200
expected

This market will predict the total known human population living outside the volume contained by Earth's natural atmosphere at the end of the year 2040. The market will resolve based on the most authoritative and widely accepted report or data source available after December 31, 2040, which provides the total estimated off-Earth human population on that date. The market pertains only to the known human population living outside the volume contained by Earth's natural atmosphere and does not account for any potential discrepancies due to unknown or uncounted populations.

Edit: My go-to source for now is https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com

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แน€1,000
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S3.00
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Not sure what the best strategy is for these types of markets, but my expectation for this value is very high. I think it's >30% we get superintelligence by 2035, in which case it would be trivial to get thousands of people into space.

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