Will the total world population peak before the end of 2090?
Basic
5
Ṁ552090
71%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves once the end date is reached, or there's two straight years of decline. If it declines one year and then continues increasing, I won't consider it to have peaked.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
Will the total world population peak before the end of 2080?
70% chance
Will the total world population peak before the end of 2070?
58% chance
Will the total world population peak before the end of 2100?
69% chance
Will the total world population peak before the end of 2060?
58% chance
Will the total world population peak before the end of 2040?
28% chance
Will the total world population peak before the end of 2050?
57% chance
Will the total world population peak over 10.5 billion?
61% chance
Will the total world population peak over 10 billion?
71% chance
Will the total world population peak over 12 billion?
30% chance
Will the total world population peak over 11 billion?
44% chance