When will Waymo offer a public driverless ride of their next generation vehicles (Zeekr, possibly no steering wheel)?
Mini
10
756
2026
1%
Before July 1, 2024
6%
Before Dec 31, 2024
50%
Before July 1, 2025
64%
Before Dec 31, 2025
72%
Before July 1, 2026
Resolved
N/A
Not before July 1, 2026

Background:

Waymo has been publically talking about their 6th-generation vehicle since the end of 2021. It has the possibility of having no steering wheel or pedals.

Currently, Waymo uses vehicles based on Jaguar I-paces, with on the order of a few hundred vehicles in service. The new platform could be significantly cheaper and potentially more capable. Thus, the release of these vehicles is significant, as it might begin the more rapid expansion of the number of vehicles and availability of an autonomous taxi service.

Question:

By when will members of the public ride in these vehicles through the Waymo One app (or successor apps)?

Details:

Members of the public excludes Waymo/Alphabet employees, or selective demonstration rides. It must be hailed through an app, but possibly might be restricted to some form of waitlist of "trusted testers". The rides must be fully driverless, but can have a steering wheel. The rides may be in any city.

This market resolves on Waymo public announcements, or credible news media.

Pacific Time zone will be used for dates, with before a given date, referring to before 00:00 Pacific on that date.

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bought Ṁ109 Before July 1, 2024 NO
bought Ṁ20 Before July 1, 2024 NO

This would be a linked probability market "only one" in the creation UI

@DavidFWatson No, multiple can resolve if before a given date (so if resolved in February 2025, three markets would resolve yes).

Also, I N/A'd the "Not before July 1, 2026" option, as really it is just the inverse of the "Before July 1, 2026" option.

Thanks for comment, and sorry for lack of clarity.

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