Metaculus gives this odds of 40%, I'm buying when yes is at 18%

Considering where it is today vs the chance it nearly doubles from the peak of previous speculation...feeling good on this one.


If there was really a 78% chance of this, then even if BTC went to zero the other 22% of the time, this would still be something like an 80% expected annual rate of return.

Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/

Will resolve positively if at any time between now and December 31, 2024 the value of 1 bitcoin is greater than or equal to $100k USD.

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ2,524
2		Ṁ1,060
3		Ṁ795
4		Ṁ749
5		Ṁ745

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