Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024?
Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024?
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1.1kṀ49kresolved Dec 6
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YES1D
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1M
ALL
Related metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/
Will resolve positively if at any time between now and December 31, 2024 the value of 1 bitcoin is greater than or equal to $100k USD.
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Considering where it is today vs the chance it nearly doubles from the peak of previous speculation...feeling good on this one.
If there was really a 78% chance of this, then even if BTC went to zero the other 22% of the time, this would still be something like an 80% expected annual rate of return.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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