Will Binance suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023?
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resolved Dec 25
Resolved
NO

(the 7 day period must fully complete before the end of 2023)

non-"amplified odds" version of https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/amplified-odds-10x-will-binance-sus

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bought Ṁ897 of NO

@patio11 i put a large limit order at 10%. Seems fair.

bought Ṁ250 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Does indeed! Lifting that.

https://www.semafor.com/article/08/02/2023/us-prosecutors-worry-binance-charges-could-cause-run-on-exchange
Quoting Molly White: To me, this seems to suggest they’re concerned that Binance is insolvent, because otherwise a run on the exchange (which should simply be custodying cryptocurrencies, not lending them out or doing other things with them as turned out to be the case with FTX) should not be catastrophic. (https://newsletter.mollywhite.net/p/issue-35-pondering-my-orb)

predicted YES

Binance US announced they're suspending USD fiat deposits/withdrawls due to the current SEC action; per below that probably doesn't immediately shake this market?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

1.) Does this only apply for Binance's main site, and not e.g. Binance US?

2.) Would a de facto suspense of withdrawals by some other means than e.g. Binance publicly announcing that they are "suspending withdrawals" count? Say, prolonged site downtime, site seizure, ...?

@nfd 1. I'd lean towards saying only the main Binance site, but if a majority of market participants are surprised by that interpretation, we could include Binance US too

  1. Yes anything that prevents a majority of users from making withdraws for a seven day period would qualify

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