Will Binance collapse before the end of 2025?
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2025
14%
chance

Below are some examples (but by no means exhaustive) that would qualify as collapse:

  1. No withdrawals for 14 days

  2. BNB market cap below $1B (unless it is phased out as planned by the company) for >14 days

  3. Files for bankruptcy

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As part of its plea settlement, Binance had agreed to pay $4.3 billion in fines — real money, not tethers — to US regulatory agencies. The first installment of $898,618,825 is due on March 25 — that’s 30 days after the court approved their guilty plea. $1,612,031,763 is due within six months, and the final $1,805,475,575 is due within 15 months. [Sentencing memo, PDF; Bloomberg, archive]

https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2024/03/16/everybody-hates-binance-two-staff-held-in-nigeria-finding-the-cash-for-4-3b-in-us-fines/

Well, if you read this essay you would expect that something should break:

https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/bond-villain-compliance-strategy/

@uair01 Binance’s Chief Compliance Officer Samuel Lim:

“[We are] operating as a fking unlicensed security exchange in the U.S. bro.”

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

What if only Binance.us collapses?

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@jack Binance.us is not Binance, it's a separate company/exchange/etc.

Unless you believe Binance.us and Binance are working illegally in tandem as they are often accused and extrapolate that Binance is therefore at risk of collapse because Binance.us is, the struggles of binance.us should have no significant effect on Binance as a whole.

predicts YES

@Gen correct binance Us is a separate company

bought Ṁ2 of NO

Binance, oh Binance, crypto's big star
Trading coins near and far
But will it crumble, fall apart?
No way, it's too smart.