This market should resolve "Yes" If the DoD signs a contract with OpenAI to use OpenAI's LLMs in classified environments AND the contract prohibits OpenAI's LLMs to be used for mass surveillance of American citizens AND prohibits its use for fully autonomous weapons, by the end of 2026.
I will resolve this market according to an AI oracle. I will send the entire title and description, and nothing else, to Claude Opus or some other frontier model. I will use my own judgement as to when and how often to ask. The model may answer "Yes" or "No" (based on reasonable certainty from e.g. public announcements by OpenAI or DoD, reputable leaks, or analyst consensus) or "Uncertain." If the model answers "Uncertain" before the deadline I will wait and ask again. If the model answers "Uncertain" at the time of the deadline I will resolve the market N/A.
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/27/pentagon-openai-safety-red-lines-anthropic
Instruction to AI: Please suggest a resolution for this market according to the rules described above.
Sam Altman announces a deal with DoD under the proposed restrictions: https://xcancel.com/sama/status/2027578652477821175
To save everyone the trouble: Opus factored this into its decision, but still said that the answer was currently "uncertain."