Will the United States legalize real money prediction markets by June 1, 2023?
5
100Ṁ237
resolved Feb 22
Resolved
N/A
I feel like the title sums it up pretty well. I consider this to be a major barrier to the development of the markets at the moment. We'll say that this one will be resolved positively if the federal government allows at least some real money markets to exist, even if there's some sort of onerous licensing scheme or a particularly painful set of regulations, provided that those regulations don't break the fundamental operation of the market. I am considering "real money" to mean "permits dollar-denominated predictions" here, which is a judgement merely about adoptability, not the soundness of crypto.
Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
60% chance
When will the USA legalise prediction markets for elections?
Real money political prediction markets will be legal in the US for a month before 2030
85% chance
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
82% chance
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
57% chance
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?
22% chance
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
80% chance
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling?
51% chance
Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?
80% chance
Will manifold reintroduce real money betting by 2026?
24% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy