Will a bill to eliminate or defund NPR make it to the President's desk by the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ552
2026
34%
chance

As it sounds, the bill must pass both houses of Congress, but I've elided the President's response to it to dodge any proxy questions about electoral victory there. The bill does not need to be primarily about defunding NPR - it's still YES if it's a small amendment tucked into the 15000th page of an omnibus. I will count it as YES even if the bill does not completely annul all government funding for NPR, so long as it's at least a 50% cut, or potentially if it enacts other provisions that seem intended to make it difficult for NPR to meet the conditions to receive funding, etc. (in my sole judgement).

Other sorts of operational interference might also be sufficient to trigger a practical YES to the elimination fork, but they'll have to meet a very high bar.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules