Will Joe Biden pardon or grant clemency to more people in his first term than Donald Trump (excluding marijuana possession pardons)?
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9
247
2025
32%
chance

Resolves upon completion of Biden's first term based on the table in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_or_granted_clemency_by_the_president_of_the_United_States.

Does not include marijuana possession pardons. However, any future blanket pardons by Biden would count.

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@AndrewG how much do you enjoy dealing with edge cases?

Does not include marijuana possession pardons. However, any future blanket pardons by Biden would count.

This release from today looks like a "blanket pardon" that "would count" for "use of marijuana" and possibly count for "attempted simple possession of marijuana", but would not count for "simple possession of marijuana", based on the current description.

What do you think, do we need to wait for Wikipedia to calculate how many people this pardoned for "use of marijuana", or are you going to say that "use of marijuana" is included in the exception for "marijuana possession"?

A prompt clarification could be very helpful for participants in this market.

I, Joseph R. Biden Jr., do hereby grant a full, complete, and unconditional pardon to all current United States citizens and lawful permanent residents who, on or before the date of this proclamation, committed or were convicted of the offense of simple possession of marijuana, attempted simple possession of marijuana, or use of marijuana

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/12/22/a-proclamation-on-granting-pardon-for-the-offense-of-simple-possession-of-marijuana-attempted-simple-possession-of-marijuana-or-use-of-marijuana/

predicts YES

@Eliza hmm, I guess I'll stick with the description that I wrote; I think this is a blanket pardon that I would count, so I'd resolve YES if |{people Biden pardoned, including the blanket pardon} \ {people Biden pardoned for marijuana possession}| > 237. This isn't exactly what I had in mind when I made this market, but I did specifically write that I would count future blanket pardons...

predicts YES

@AndrewG Thank you for the prompt clarification!

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