This market will resolve based solely on the FiveThirtyEight "Who's Ahead in National Polls" chart. Specifically, I will check the page at 9pm eastern the day before the caucus, and resolve based on the average listed there at that time, if there is a section called "Average as of today". If the section is titled "Average as of yesterday" or similar, I will check the "Average as of yesterday" on the morning of the caucus. In other cases, I will do my best to use the chart to estimate the averages on the evening before the caucus.
DeSantis is currently in second place. Will he still be in second place right before the first caucuses?
1,000
3.00
I think this got resolved incorrectly?
Edit: Just noticed the 9pm EST deadline. Wow, I never would have thought it came down to a difference of a couple hours. I guess this resolved correctly then.
@Joshua FiveThirtyEight almost never update their tracker on weekends, probably because they don't work weekends. I wonder why an employee got into the office on a Sunday Evening.
The new polls were added at 9:46 pm. Should resolve YES
@AndrewBrown He's neck-and-neck with Haley, and the caucus isn't for another 10 days - ample time for them to trade places
