Will Altman "have a new company up by Monday"?
resolved Nov 21

Based on https://x.com/karaswisher/status/1725702612379378120?s=20

Resolves YES if Altman has announced that he is starting a new company by the end of the day Monday PT; NO if not.

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NikolayGechev avatar
Nikolay Gechevpredicted NO

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylor 🏅sold Ṁ1,100 of NO

It's 9:45 PT...

AndrewG avatar
Andrew G

@TiredCliche good point, I'll resolve tomorrow

MarkHamill avatar
Mark Hamillsold Ṁ29 of YES
AndrewG avatar
Andrew Gsold Ṁ894 of NO

Nadella: "we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team"—this seems (so far) to me like it would resolve NO. (I've sold all my shares at a loss to avoid CoIs; didn't expect this to have a hard resolution)

ChrisMills avatar
Chris Mills 🦚bought Ṁ25 of YES

It’s being described as a “new Microsoft subsidiary”, of which Sam is the CEO, rather than a business unit, like “the Copilot team” or something, so I think I would argue that’s a “YES”, just by definition of what a subsidiary is. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidiary

ChrisMills avatar
Chris Mills 🦚predicted YES

@ChrisMills Actually, I’ve also seen it described as “research team”, so I’m not sure right now.

MarkHamill avatar
Mark Hamillpredicted YES

I think the deciding factor is whether his title is CEO. But obviously biased

ChrisMills avatar
Chris Mills 🦚predicted YES

@MarkHamill Satya has already described Sam as "CEO of this new group" in a tweet reply, but obviously the deal does not appear to be inked at-present, so I think the most impactful component of the probability of this resolving "YES" is whether or not there's a credible path forward for Sam et al. to return to OpenAI, because that's likely the hold up on anything getting signed, whatever the org chart.

MarkHamill avatar
Mark Hamill

Is Waymo considered to be a new company apart from Google?

Tomoffer avatar
Tom Offerbought Ṁ100 of NO
TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚bought Ṁ3 of YES

the microsoft CEO seems to indicate that sama will be CEO:
"I’m super excited to have you join as CEO of this new group, Sam, setting a new pace for innovation"
Does this not indicate he would be starting a new company? Probably not, just speculation, but I'm confused

sylv avatar
Sylvie bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 23%