Based on https://x.com/karaswisher/status/1725702612379378120?s=20
Resolves YES if Altman has announced that he is starting a new company by the end of the day Monday PT; NO if not.
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Nadella: "we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team"—this seems (so far) to me like it would resolve NO. (I've sold all my shares at a loss to avoid CoIs; didn't expect this to have a hard resolution)
It’s being described as a “new Microsoft subsidiary”, of which Sam is the CEO, rather than a business unit, like “the Copilot team” or something, so I think I would argue that’s a “YES”, just by definition of what a subsidiary is. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidiary
@ChrisMills Actually, I’ve also seen it described as “research team”, so I’m not sure right now.
@MarkHamill Satya has already described Sam as "CEO of this new group" in a tweet reply, but obviously the deal does not appear to be inked at-present, so I think the most impactful component of the probability of this resolving "YES" is whether or not there's a credible path forward for Sam et al. to return to OpenAI, because that's likely the hold up on anything getting signed, whatever the org chart.
https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1726516824597258569?s=20
the microsoft CEO seems to indicate that sama will be CEO:
"I’m super excited to have you join as CEO of this new group, Sam, setting a new pace for innovation"
Does this not indicate he would be starting a new company? Probably not, just speculation, but I'm confused