Will anyone profit by at least X on a single market in 2024?
Mini
17
4.9k
2025
94%
>M$75,000
86%
>M$100,000
81%
>M$150,000
76%
>M$200,000
67%
>M$300,000
60%
>M$500,000
59%
>M$400,000
47%
>M$750,000
46%
>M$1,000,000
Resolved
YES
>M$10,000
Resolved
YES
>M$20,000
Resolved
YES
>M$30,000
Resolved
YES
>M$15,000
Resolved
YES
>M$50,000

Realized profits (either the market is resolved, or the user in question sold their position).

I'll ignore bets placed to manipulate this market (with alt accounts, etc.) with fake profit. This market considers "real" profit on "real", ranked, markets.

Markets resolved before this market's creation don't count, nor do realized profits made before 2024.

Respectfully inspired from @IsaacKing's 2023 markets:

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ250 >M$75,000 YES

I'm tempted to not count clear coinflips even if they are ranked. I don't think they should be ranked if they are used to coinflip. stocks / sports games being the most obvious

sold Ṁ239 >M$75,000 YES

it's not really the spirit with which I made the market, and all that. not sure though.

>M$50,000
bought Ṁ264 >M$50,000 YES
bought Ṁ300 >M$15,000 YES

Does adding Manifold as a topic to this market make sense?

yeah good points i switched them around

bought Ṁ15 >M$50,000 YES

Profit after market close or any point in time?

@Lion after market creation

Do unsubed/unranked markets count? Does agency stuff count?

ignore

hmm

bought Ṁ5 >M$100,000 YES

@Bayesian I.e. if someone has an unrealized profit on a market, but loose it after market close, would that count?

@Bayesian Ie someone bets 50k on Harris as president right now, she becomes nominee and her odds grow to 30% and the unrealized profits grow to 1 Million, but she ends up losing the election. Would that count?

@Lion yeah good question, I'm considering what seems most right. Temporary unrealized profit from market manipulation definitely shouldn't count, but like if another lk99 type thing happens, and someone makes 5 million but it stays unrealized for a while, id kinda want that to count

ig, if someone can sell their position for a X mana profit, so if there's X realized profits regardless of market status, it would count? does that sound reasonable to you

alternatively it could be something like "this person has X+ profits on the market as displayed by the positions tab, for more than a week straight

@Bayesian I don't understand the sell rule😂 I think the week rule is too ambigious and could be manipulated. I think the easiest way would be to say all ranked profits after the market resolves, even if that doesn't account for all profits.

@Lion yeah that works. but if there's a market that resolves in 2030, and someone makes 500k off of that and sells out of their position now, that would be 500k realized profits in 2024, do you think that shouldn't count just bc the market is resolving farther in the future?

@Bayesian darn and then someone might have made 100k in 2023, and another 100k in 2024, and it'll be hard to tell without a bunch of specific api calls. ig that's fine

@Bayesian tbh, i think it should count. But you have to come up with some rules for that case. [I think it's pretty unlikely]

@Bayesian I'll leave you to it, good luck ❤

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