Realized profits (either the market is resolved, or the user in question sold their position).
I'll ignore bets placed to manipulate this market (with alt accounts, etc.) with fake profit. This market considers "real" profit on "real", ranked, markets.
Markets resolved before this market's creation don't count, nor do realized profits made before 2024.
Respectfully inspired from @IsaacKing's 2023 markets:
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Looks like Flip only made under 20k shares of no bets before 2024. Congrats,
@Bayesian top 3 resolve yes https://manifold.markets/dglid/-will-2-iowa-state-beat-3-illinois
ignore
@Bayesian I.e. if someone has an unrealized profit on a market, but loose it after market close, would that count?
@Bayesian Ie someone bets 50k on Harris as president right now, she becomes nominee and her odds grow to 30% and the unrealized profits grow to 1 Million, but she ends up losing the election. Would that count?
@Lion yeah good question, I'm considering what seems most right. Temporary unrealized profit from market manipulation definitely shouldn't count, but like if another lk99 type thing happens, and someone makes 5 million but it stays unrealized for a while, id kinda want that to count
@Bayesian I don't understand the sell rule😂 I think the week rule is too ambigious and could be manipulated. I think the easiest way would be to say all ranked profits after the market resolves, even if that doesn't account for all profits.
@Lion yeah that works. but if there's a market that resolves in 2030, and someone makes 500k off of that and sells out of their position now, that would be 500k realized profits in 2024, do you think that shouldn't count just bc the market is resolving farther in the future?
@Bayesian darn and then someone might have made 100k in 2023, and another 100k in 2024, and it'll be hard to tell without a bunch of specific api calls. ig that's fine
@Bayesian tbh, i think it should count. But you have to come up with some rules for that case. [I think it's pretty unlikely]