Probability for Biden to be the 2024 Democratic Nominee at end of July 2023 (10x zoomed in probability within [85%,95%])
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resolved Aug 10
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At the end of July 2023, I will evaluate the referenced Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee market and determine the probability based on the one-day average price, which I will label as AP. The resolution of this market will be as follows:
Resolves to 0% if AP <=85%
Resolves to 10% if AP ==86%
Resolves to 20% if AP ==87%
....
Resolves to 80% if AP ==93%
Resolves to 90% if AP ==94%
Resolves to 100% if AP >=95%
I will try to keep the margin of error for the final resolution to be less than 5%
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