Here's the percent I'm going to resolve each answer to:
A sudden incident or announcement (manifold odds drop >70% in one hour): 50%
he quits for health reasons (other than death): 45%
he died: 35%
he quits the race during primaries: 35%
The courts deem that he is not eligible to run for President: 55%
He makes a series of huge PR blunders that ruin his electability: 30%
He quits because he is too unpopular: 22%

someone else got elected at the RNC: 8%

Biden can’t or isn’t running for president: 12%
The courts concede that he won in 2020 meaning that term limits prevent him from running again: 4%

@traders If you have dispute on this resolution decision, please let me know within the next 24 hours before I resolve this market

@traders

“He makes a series of huge PR blunders.” 🤣

He could:

1. Mock a person with disabilities.

2. Make some incredibly sexiest remarks.

3. Disrespect the parents of a dead war hero.

4. Disrespect a living war hero.

Or perhaps he could:

1. Be convicted of rape.

2. Steal classified documents.

3. Pressure people to overturn the will of American voters.

4. Encourage an angry mob to attack a government building.

5. Tell the angry mob that he loves them after they kill a few police officers.

6. Be found guilty of business fraud.

7. Make a series of bizarre statements and slur his words on multiple occasions.

A lot of mutually exclusive options are jointly at higher than 100%

@PlasmaBallin This market is very likely to resolve NA. Admins haven't fixed conditionals yet

@Tumbles This market resolves to the average percent in the month of February, it likely won’t resolve NA.

@AmmonLam Oh right sorry about the fake news

Is this a thing?

Lol whalebait

Cool market, way too likely to resolve NA for it to be accurate though

@Tumbles
"Resolves to the one month average percent from February 1st to Feb 29th"

@AmmonLam oh it's advanced whalebait lol. I guess the way you have it set up is slightly better, interesting idea

@Tumbles
I suppose you could consider it a whale bait market, but in this case, the whales face a real risk if they try to manipulate the price.

Let's say whales pushed a highly improbable reason to 99%, and then the unlikely scenario of Trump not being the nominee for another reason unfolds in February. In such a situation, the market force would be too large for the whales to maintain a high price when the true price should be 0%