Are donations on Manifold counterfactual?

5

110Ṁ75

resolved Jan 3

Resolved as

46%

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Resolves to the same answer as
https://manifold.markets/AlexbGoode/are-manifold-donations-counterfactu

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My personal answer is 0.46. YMMV

Some question different format:
/AlexbGoode/are-manifold-donations-counterfactu

I found this discussion on the definition of counterfactual useful: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nz2scND85oFyTXTGo/what-should-counterfactual-donation-mean

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