Will a spacecraft sustain a acceleration above 1 milligee at a specific impulse above 3000 seconds before 2045?
Will a spacecraft sustain a acceleration above 1 milligee at a specific impulse above 3000 seconds before 2045?
2
70Ṁ352045
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if a spacecraft achieves a sustained acceleration greater than 1 milligee (0.01 m/s^2) using a propulsion system with an effective specific impulse exceeding 3000 seconds (or around 29.4 km/s Ve), before January 1st, 2045. The spacecraft must exclusively make use of internal propellant to achieve this acceleration, but can make use of externally provided power (i.e. harvested from sunlight or the solar wind, or beamed to a rectenna).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a spacecraft a sustained acceleration above 1 milligee at a specific impulse above 3000 seconds before 2045?
31% chance
Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?
7% chance
Will any chemical rocket engine reach 600 seconds of specific impulse by 2030?
10% chance
Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?
8% chance
Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach space before 2035?
9% chance
Will a spacecraft achieve a stable orbit around a star other than the Sun prior to 2200?
28% chance
Will a nuclear thermal engine be successfully used to power a spacecraft before 2035?
52% chance
Will a nuclear thermal engine be successfully used to power a spacecraft before 2030?
45% chance
Will a manned interstellar mission be launched before January 1, 2060?
20% chance
Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?
28% chance