Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?
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18
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2040
7%
chance

Achieving propulsion at or above 1% the speed of light (approximately 2,998 km/s) relative to an Earth-based frame of reference would significantly reduce the time required to travel within our solar system and make interstellar travel more feasible. Developing a spacecraft capable of such speeds would require significant advancements in propulsion technology, energy management, and materials science.

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st 2040, a spacecraft is publicly and credibly documented to have:

  1. Achieved a propulsion speed of at least 1% the speed of light (approximately 2,998 km/s) in a vacuum environment, relative to an Earth-based frame of reference.

  2. Maintained the propulsion speed of at least 1% the speed of light relative to an Earth-based frame of reference for a minimum duration of 60 seconds.

  3. Demonstrated the ability to control and maneuver the spacecraft at the achieved speed, including acceleration, deceleration, and direction changes.

A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

  1. A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the spacecraft, its propulsion system, energy management, materials used, and performance in terms of the criteria outlined above.

  2. Independent validation of the results by at least two separate entities with expertise in spacecraft engineering, propulsion technology, or related fields. These entities can be research groups, institutions, or companies.

  3. Telemetry data, video, or photographic evidence of the spacecraft achieving and maintaining the propulsion speed of at least 1% the speed of light relative to an Earth-based frame of reference, as well as any available analytical data supporting the claims.

  4. Successful completion of a mission or test flight, either crewed or uncrewed, that demonstrates the spacecraft's ability to perform at the required speed while executing its intended purpose (e.g., scientific observation, cargo transport, or crew transport).

I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts.

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1% the speed of light is 3000km/s which is ~31k times the kinetic energy of the fastest manmade probe thus far (voyager 1). Ultra-high enriched uranium with 5% burnup ~4*10^12 J/kg versus hydralox is 1.34*10^7 J/kg. Ratio: 300k. So... maybe it's possible.