Will any AI score 30% or more on Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before Ramadan 2025?
9
100Ṁ603
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO

AI
Technology
Technical AI Timelines
OpenAI
AI Impacts
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ25
2Ṁ20
3Ṁ15
4Ṁ8
5Ṁ7

People are also trading

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?
61% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
4% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
4% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
18% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
75% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
86% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?
87% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2027?
87% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
61% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 NO

@DavidHiggs yes

@AlpAtalan And for others, the end is probably april 9th, not when this market closes.

bought Ṁ75 NO

@DavidHiggs I would have bet to lower than 22% since Ramadan is 11 days from now, except for uncertainty about the actual resolution criteria. If an AI gets 31% on HLE before the end of Ramadan, does this resolve yes?

Is this before Ramandan starts?

People are also trading

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?
+8% 1d61% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
4% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
4% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
18% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
75% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
86% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?
87% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2027?
87% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
61% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy