Will any of the hashes mentioned in the $8,192 NIST Elliptic Curves Seeds Bounty be cracked within 6 months?
10
190Ṁ6160
resolved Apr 8
Resolved
NO

On October 5th 2023, the $8,192 NIST Elliptic Curves Seeds Bounty was announced: https://words.filippo.io/dispatches/seeds-bounty/

This is a bounty for cracking five sha-1 hashes related to the security of elliptic curve cryptography. The following hashes are mentioned in the announcement:

3045AE6FC8422F64ED579528D38120EAE12196D5 # NIST P-192, ANSI prime192v1
BD71344799D5C7FCDC45B59FA3B9AB8F6A948BC5 # NIST P-224
C49D360886E704936A6678E1139D26B7819F7E90 # NIST P-256, ANSI prime256v1
A335926AA319A27A1D00896A6773A4827ACDAC73 # NIST P-384
D09E8800291CB85396CC6717393284AAA0DA64BA # NIST P-521
31A92EE2029FD10D901B113E990710F0D21AC6B6 # ANSI prime192v2, not eligible for bounty
C469684435DEB378C4B65CA9591E2A5763059A2E # ANSI prime192v3, not eligible for bounty
E43BB460F0B80CC0C0B075798E948060F8321B7D # ANSI prime239v1, not eligible for bounty
E8B4011604095303CA3B8099982BE09FCB9AE616 # ANSI prime239v2, not eligible for bounty
7D7374168FFE3471B60A857686A19475D3BFA2FF # ANSI prime239v3, not eligible for bounty
85E25BFE5C86226CDB12016F7553F9D0E693A268 # NIST B-163, not eligible for bounty
74D59FF07F6B413D0EA14B344B20A2DB049B50C3 # NIST B-233, not eligible for bounty
77E2B07370EB0F832A6DD5B62DFC88CD06BB84BE # NIST B-283, not eligible for bounty
4099B5A457F9D69F79213D094C4BCD4D4262210B # NIST B-409, not eligible for bounty
2AA058F73A0E33AB486B0F610410C53A7F132310 # NIST B-571, not eligible for bounty

This market resolves to YES if any of the above hashes are cracked by April 5th 2024 midnight UTC. This includes the hashes not eligible for the bounty.

Announcing the $8,192 NIST Elliptic Curves Seeds Bounty
Announcing a $8,192 bounty (tripled to charity) for cracking the five seeds selected by the NSA in the '90s for the NIST elliptic curve standard.

Related question: https://manifold.markets/AliceRyhl/will-the-nist-elliptic-curves-seeds

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This market should probably be lower than this one, which closes later: https://manifold.markets/PaulCrowley/will-there-be-any-payouts-on-the-ni?r=VmVyZ2lzc2Z1bmt0b3I

Will there be any payouts on the NIST Elliptic Curve Seeds Bounty by May 5 2024?
16% chance. Filippo Valsorda today announced a contest: "Crack the NSA’s five SHA-1 hashes at the heart of NIST's elliptic curves" and win a prize currently at up to $12k: "The NIST elliptic curves that power much of modern cryptography were generated in the late ‘90s by hashing seeds provided by the NSA. How were the seeds generated? Rumor has it that they are in turn hashes of English sentences, but the person who picked them, Dr. Jerry Solinas, passed away in early 2023 leaving behind a cryptographic mystery, some conspiracy theories, and an historical password cracking challenge." Cracking any one of the five hashes nets half the prize money. Will there be any payouts (either for one hash or for all five) six months after the start of the contest?

Related question: https://manifold.markets/AliceRyhl/will-the-nist-elliptic-curves-seeds

Will the NIST Elliptic Curves Seeds be cracked within 6 months of the bounty announcement?
41% chance. On October 5th 2023, the $8,192 NIST Elliptic Curves Seeds Bounty was announced: https://words.filippo.io/dispatches/seeds-bounty/ This is a bounty for cracking the following five sha-1 hashes, which are related to the security of elliptic curve cryptography: 3045AE6FC8422F64ED579528D38120EAE12196D5 BD71344799D5C7FCDC45B59FA3B9AB8F6A948BC5 C49D360886E704936A6678E1139D26B7819F7E90 A335926AA319A27A1D00896A6773A4827ACDAC73 D09E8800291CB85396CC6717393284AAA0DA64BA This market resolves to YES if all five hashes are cracked by April 5th 2024 midnight UTC. [link preview]

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