Will I exercise 45 minutes a day in July?
10
58
แน€100
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
YES

This market resolves yes if I average 45 minutes of exercise per day in July.

Overoptimistically raising the bar from last month!

manifold.markets/Alice/will-i-exercise-30-minutes-a-day-in

July 1: 52 minutes

July 2: 72 minutes

July 3: 28 minutes

July 4: 50 minutes

July 5: 0 minutes

July 6: 16 minutes

July 7: 2 minutes

July 8: 12 minutes

July 9: 44 minutes
July 10: 80 minutes July 11: 30 minutes July 12: 2 minutes
July 13: 50 minutes July 14: 40 minutes July 15: 12 minutes

July 16: 30 minutes

July 17: 44 minutes

July 18: 0 minutes

July 19: 8 minutes

July 20: 20 minutes

July 21: 18 minutes

July 22: 84 minutes

July 23: 84 minutes

July 24: 72 minutes

July 25: 16 minutes

July 26: 0 minutes

Jul 27: 10 minutes

July 28: 30 minutes

July 29: 20 minutes

July 30: 270 minutes

July 31: 200 minutes

Get แน€200 play money

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Just realized the worst possible exercise: chess. Always leads to that Fischer posture when not supplied with copious stimulants. Best possible exercise is some form of hypoxia training. Never forget the stimulants in your routine.
predicted YES
Edge of seat! Looks like if you did at least 16m11s of exercise this weekend, you've succeeded!
bought แน€100 of NO
Oops, a bug in my Mathematica script there. Looks like 7h49m was needed this weekend!
predicted YES
@dreev If only it were that easy!
predicted NO
@Alice Ha, I missed the other subthread here where you also calculated the exact amount needed! Amazing work with the marathon kayaking!
bought แน€250 of YES
It's looking rough, but I'm doubling down. Last two days!
predicted YES
Am I really going to catch up on 469 minutes of exercise this weekend?
predicted YES
@Alice I bet yes but I implore you don't do it if you think it's going to damage your health / motivation
predicted NO
@Alice can you elaborate on what exercise you plan on undertaking? Iโ€™m pretty happy to lose $M incentivizing consistent exercise, but Iโ€™ll probably stay away from these markets in future if what Iโ€™m actually doing is encouraging two 4hr excessive catch-up days at the end of the month ๐Ÿ˜ฌ. I donโ€™t suppose two days of 4hrs of walking or light biking would be so bad, but I donโ€™t think many doctors would recommend two back-to-back 4hr days of most types of exercise. Of course, Iโ€™m betting NO so you could argue if I really cared Iโ€™d have said something before you doubled down ๐Ÿ˜…, but honestly I did the math and thought it was already settled. Either way thanks for keeping a well-updated market and be safe lol. FWIW Iโ€™d rather you resolve it YES without doing the exercise than know that my dumb Manifold addiction gave someone RABDO ๐Ÿ™†โ€โ™‚๏ธ.
predicted YES
@XidaRen Oh, that's so kind of you.
predicted YES
@Charlie Yeah, I probably shouldn't have left myself an end-of-the-month marathon to catch up on, haha. I ended up kayak camping, paddling about four hours each way to the beach campsite. Kayaking is definitely not my sport, but don't worry โ€” it was safe!
Exercise is bad for your health. Do pots of movement in goid form. Take it easy on yourself.
Read Pontzer's Burn. The reason exercise sometimes improves health is due to people burning less energy doing it, and thus reducing food consumption.
This is also why bodybuilding is the most dangerous sport, BTW. Zero bodybuilders would have survived in a famine. BMI opponents are just coping.
predicted YES
@EnopoletusHarding fascinated. Do you have a link on POTS and good form?
@XidaRen Good form? Kjetil Larsen made several videos on the subject, but he's a bit hard to interpret. His video on scapular mechanics in the bench press and military press is dead simple and correct, though. There is one way to get into somewhat good form while doing exercise. The guy who wrote "Eye of the Tiger" did it for his groin, though he didn't have much awareness of proper scapular dynamics (his shoulders are good, but not great). And he did write "Eye of the Tiger", which ain't nothing. Never heard of POTS before, sorry.
I've checked if Kjetil follows his own advice and... he does. He is 75% of the way to good posture. Not as much as the Survivor/Imagine Dragons leads, but better than easily 95% of the population. The reason he looks weird is the muscle imbalances -the body is fine with expelling fat left and right, but getting rid of muscle is one of the truly most foreign things the body can do, so it will take quite a while for him to recover from his years of bad training/injuries. His shoulders in 2017 were a bit low, they have since been raised to appropriate height. His pelvic positioning in 2017 was good, about 90% of the way there.
Brief note: the guys who wrote "You're in The Army Now" and "Eye of the Tiger" have exactly the same postures. Dieter and Freddie Mercury, however, also had exactly the same postures, and were mirror images of them.
predicted YES
@EnopoletusHarding oh I think you were typing Lots and typed Pots and then I interpreted it as an abbreviation.
predicted YES
Imagine dragons lead singer topless photo for reference https://images.app.goo.gl/vKG4RxXX7nCjtH7F8
predicted YES
@EnopoletusHarding https://youtu.be/VCbD67b-Mo8 Is this what you were referring to by Kjetil Larsen's video on scapular mechanics?
@XidaRen Just found a better example than Imagine Dragons (though the videos and music in Imagine Dragons are bicam): Depeche Mode. It is the only music that actually, literally hypnotizes me. That's some pretty advanced technique.
@XidaRen Yup. That's the one.
@XidaRen OK, Ryan Gosling... is a bicam. No wonder he is beloved by los Volkes.
bought แน€1 of YES
Love this! Rooting for you (except I guess I should be betting NO to help incentivize you). Btw, this is exactly what Beeminder does, plus doing the math for you on what you need to hit each day to maintain a given overall average.
predicted YES
@dreev Yeah, I keep hearing about Beeminder!