Will anyone at Carson's party know every guest's name and the best or worst bet each person has made?
20
131
410
resolved Feb 26
Resolved
NO

This market resolves yes if any attendee at Carson's party can say every guest's name and the best or worst bet (on Manifold or in life) each person's ever made.

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bought Ṁ25 of YES

How does this resolve if there's a stubborn attendee who is unwilling to share the best/worst bet they've ever made?

predicted YES

@CarsonGale The market is meant to encourage guests to meet each other, so I think any fun fact (It has to actually be fun!) would be acceptable.

predicted YES

Of course someone could refuse to share anything at all, but that seems like a pretty unenjoyable way to be at a party.

predicted YES

@Alice Would it be possible to make a provision for purposes of this market that it only includes attendees that are willing to share their best / worst bet?

Also, does it make sense to ask for people to try at a certain time (e.g., 8:30pm) to avoid winning on a technicality? e.g., 5 minutes into the party someone names the names and best/worst bets of the 3 people in attendance and technically resolves early?

This is a great way to incentivize getting to meet people :)

predicted YES

@CarsonGale Sure, let's say 8:30, and attendees can opt out or share a fun fact instead. Thanks for helping to clarify all the fuzziness around this market!

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I'll bring nametags, everyone presumably knows @CarsonGale already, and it shouldn't be that hard to meet 22 people!