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oof first market of this sort, and such a profit, it's enough to hook me. Where's tomorrow's market :p

@firstuserhere Will the S&P 500 close higher on July 28th than it closed on July 27th? | Manifold

@firstuserhere Just click on Goodes tag or my tag, theyll be there.

@firstuserhere It certainly is, but also taking a loss many days in a row is painful, had like 7 days in a row where my NO bet went worthless, which to fair is just position managment on my part.

This day will change both of our leaderboards for sure.

Appreciate all you that held firm on YES.

❤

Wah

@vincentpearce

Feck!!!

@EhMe11 woah! so much red

@EhMe11 Positive outlook....that managram I sent you yesterday will help cover your loss here on this market today, and if this is resolved a NO, we all appreciate you contributing to YES. ❤

@firstuserhere

4561 is in sight at this pace, which would be a NO!

But also 4581 😭

@SirCryptomind 10 minutes to get in or out. Take profits or let it ride?

@AlexbGoode

Im Riding

@AlexbGoode and the cherry on top is it going sideways now

@ScipioFabius Oh dear I forgot to sell...

@AlexbGoode could turn out a blessing in disguise

@ScipioFabius Easy money. Never doubted myself for a second!

I've seen these daily markets but never really traded in them. Anyone have stats on how often they've resolved YES or NO (short or long term, any is ok)?

@firstuserhere For July click here to see past resolved markets from 6 creators.

▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲

@SirCryptomind Thank you!

@firstuserhere have wanted to ask this aswell, but recently there have been a lot YES because we are in a bull market. Was thinking about pulling daily data from yahoo finances and writing a little script to check this (including streaks/runs), but havent had time to do it.

@ScipioFabius Yea the Dow especially this month.

If the Dow closes higher today, it will be the longest streak since 1897.

YES 1897 is what you read! 😂

@firstuserhere Should be easy to get data from the API. I have been doing these markets since May.
https://calibration.city/manifold if you want to get some stats on calibration (it's not that good).

@AlexbGoode Yeah it should be easy to do, was wondering if someone has already done

@AlexbGoode woah that calibration is wild

@ScipioFabius that said if price action in terms of support and resistance is anything to go by, we are near a high right now.

@AlexbGoode How does that page work that you linked?

@SirCryptomind Wow betting fake money on such a historical event really would be special.

@ScipioFabius You put in the filter and click apply. This is how I create the graph:

@firstuserhere I looked it up a few days ago. For 251 trading days starting 7/22/22, 122 were UP.