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@AlexbGoode please resolve, thanks. cc @Conflux @PlasmaBallin

@deagol I did some back of the envelope calculations. Might be wrong by a percentage point, but given the minuscule amount of mana involved I don't want to spent more then a few minutes on this. I hope this is okay for everyone.

@AlexbGoode thanks! just had to say i did beat all of you in this one! 🤣

@deagol tell me your secrets

Just to confirm (and a couple questions), this resolves to PROB the closest integer percent to the time-weighted average probability (using the exact probability values or rounded as shown by the interface?) over the whole time it was open from April 11 until Dec 31 (but what timezone? close time seems odd).

@deagol Yes, this market resolves to PROB. The average is from market creation to the end of the year. Averages will be time-weighted and I will use the percentages as returned by the API (no rounding).

The close time is one minute before midnight central European summer time.

@AlexbGoode hmm so that’s still confusing me quite a bit. You say the market closes a minute before midnight CEST (UTC+2) but that doesn’t match the time I see in the market info panel, the time it shows me currently matches Eastern European Summer Time (EEST UTC+3).

Furthermore, neither of those timezones (summer time) are observed on that closing date, instead CET (UTC+1) or EET (UTC+2) will be observed, yet neither of those match the market close as I see it. So, I take it the market will close one minute to midnight UTC+3, whatever timezone that is for you on the closing date of Dec 31.

Now, is this close time in reality one minute before your actual intended “end of the year”? In that case, we should add one minute worth of time-weight at the closing market probability to correctly compute the average, right?

Alternatively, it’s plausible to me guessing from your clarification, that you’re actually somewhere in Eastern Europe currently observing EEST (why you’d call it CEST escapes me), but when “the end of the year” comes to you, the timezone in observance will be EET, and thus the cutoff time for the average “as you see it” will be 59 minutes before the market closes.

Or perhaps I’m way overthinking this and you just meant the average until market close (ignoring that missing minute or the extra 59) making this whole “end of the year for you” subjectivity/guessing game irrelevant.

@deagol I am quite convinced that the 1-59 minutes we are discussing won't make a noticable difference in the final average. There are approximately 333300 minutes left this year, meaning we are discussing about a number that has a weight of at most 0.0002.

The market shows that it closes 31.12.2023 at 23:59 in my UI. I really can't say what kind of time zone conversions manifold does and if it adjusts for daylight savings time and how. I got here by simply clicking "this year" in the market creation UI.

I assumed it will be CEST because that is the timezone I am currently in, but who knows ;)

I will update the market description to make any guessing unnecessary. If that somehow invalidates your trading strategy let me know and I will reimburse you all losses you make when you sell your current position.

@AlexbGoode yeah I agree I was overthinking and the discussion is pointless without knowing what the interface is doing with timezone daylight/summer conversions behind the scenes. Indeed now I suspect it’s adding an hour to the close for their local (PDT) timezone, and so it shows me UTC+3 now but will be UTC+2 by close?

In any case, no worries I’m good with whatever happens, just nit-picky about getting my formulas right, no strategy at all so far, and won’t need any reimbursement. Thanks.