Will Russia destroy energy OR heating system for any Major Ukrainian city in Winter 2023/2024 by rockets and drones?
resolved Apr 18

Current capacity, after 1 year of war, is reduced from 50 gigawatt to 15 gigawatt.
In a next Winter season of energy war, will Ukraine permanently lose centralized energy supply to inhanbitants?


  1. Any major city (Lvov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, Kharkov) will lose majority of central heating before 1st of April 2024

2. Any major city (Lvov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, Kharkov) will lose majority of central electricity before 1st of April 2024

3. No electricity or No heating will last more than 30 days and authorities/humanitarian org/ population will start evacuation from the City

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Inactive creator, deadline in the resolution criteria has passed, modresolving NO. There no known reports of outages meeting the criteria before the deadline.

@Odoacre the creator is inactive and I only haven't resolved this yet because mods aren't supposed to bet immediately prior to resolving.

Are you aware of any evacuations of Lvov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, or Kharkov prior to April 1st due to an electrical or heating outage lasting more than 30 days?

sold Ṁ10 YES

@chrisjbillington I bought after reading the title, I sold after reading the description.

bought Ṁ1,250 NO

@Odoacre Many such cases

@chrisjbillington yeah, I lucked out and managed to steal some money from a bot and was trying to goad it into betting again.

sold Ṁ176 NO

Winter is over.

None of the attacks triggered evacuation from big cities.

The today's annihilation of the TripolskajaTES happened after the first of April, so It can't be used for Yes resolution.

sold Ṁ92 YES

this needs to be resolved. winter is over

bought Ṁ40 of NO

Strong no bet, as even losing heating/elec doesn't mean that the city is likely to be evacuated in winter.

predicted YES

@CromlynGames Average temperature in Ukraine during winter is +5 - 5/ non survivable without heating systems and electricity. Many diesel generators are bought, but they are covering 5-10% of demand. Without central heating /electricity systems, cities will become a place without survival conditions and population will flee. In this case evaciation happen by natural order or by government/humanitarian efforts.

Is it (1 OR 2) AND 3 or 1 OR (2 AND 3)?

predicted YES

@SebastianWorms (1 or 2) and (3)

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