If the US uses a nuclear weapon in Iran will Russia use one in Ukraine within a month? | Manifold

If the US uses a nuclear weapon in Iran will Russia use one in Ukraine within a month?

9

Ṁ100Ṁ272

resolved Jun 25

Resolved

N/A

1H

6H

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1W

1M

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Tactical or strategic nuclear weapons count. Clock starts ticking on a month when the US drops the bomb.

Market resolves NA if the US hasn't used a nuclear weapon in Iran by September 1st or if the US hit the Fordow enrichment facility with conventional weapons and still hasn't used a nuclear one two days after (timing might be fuzzy depending on my news checking). Tight NA resolution timeline to not keep mana locked up on a market that resolves NA.

Market context

Israel-Iran Conflict

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@mods per the second NA condition (two days after non-nuclear strike on Fordow) I need to resolve this NA. I'm getting an error that the negative payouts are too large. Not sure what that means. Can someone help? It's a pretty small market and I'm happy to have any losses come from my own Mana if necessary

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