If the US uses a nuclear weapon in Iran will Russia use one in Ukraine within a month?
4
100Ṁ70Sep 1
36%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Tactical or strategic nuclear weapons count. Clock starts ticking on a month when the US drops the bomb.
Market resolves NA if the US hasn't used a nuclear weapon in Iran by September 1st or if the US hit the Fordow enrichment facility with conventional weapons and still hasn't used a nuclear one two days after (timing might be fuzzy depending on my news checking). Tight NA resolution timeline to not keep mana locked up on a market that resolves NA.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war?
8% chance
Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
15% chance
If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
22% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine?
7% chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
2% chance
Will Ukraine acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2028, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election?
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2028?
4% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?
5% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine?
8% chance