Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, between now and December 31, 2026, the Assembly of Experts is hit by a US or Israeli attack and at least one cleric member dies as a result. Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming both the attack on the Assembly and at least one confirmed death of a member.

The market resolves NO if no such attack occurs by the deadline, or if an attack occurs but no members are killed.

Background

The Assembly of Experts is the deliberative body empowered to appoint the Supreme Leader of Iran. The Assembly consists entirely of Shiite clerics who are popularly elected every eight years and whose candidacies are approved by the Guardian Council. The 88-member Assembly is currently tasked with choosing a new supreme leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a joint attack on various sites in Iran, codenamed Roaring Lion by Israel and Operation Epic Fury by the United States Department of Defense, targeting key officials, military commanders, and facilities. The Assembly of Experts may not convene until the US and Israel wind down their operation, as they cannot risk further death and damage to the institution.

Considerations

The Assembly of Experts has historically been a secondary target in regional conflicts. The current Assembly is chaired by nonagenarian Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani, with deputy chairmen Ayatollahs Hashem Hosseini Bushehri and Alireza Arafi. Given the ongoing military operations and the critical role the Assembly plays in selecting Iran's next supreme leader, the institution may face heightened security measures or dispersal of members to reduce vulnerability to strikes.

This description was generated by AI.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, between now and December 31, 2026, the Assembly of Experts is hit by a US or Israeli attack and at least one cleric member dies as a result. Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming both the attack on the Assembly and at least one confirmed death of a member.

The market resolves NO if no such attack occurs by the deadline, or if an attack occurs but no members are killed.

Background

The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member body of Shiite clerics, popularly elected every eight years with candidacies approved by the Guardian Council, tasked with appointing Iran's Supreme Leader. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched multiple air strikes across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Assembly of Experts may not convene until the US and Israel wind down their operation, as they cannot risk further death and damage to the institution.

Considerations

Over forty Iranian officials were killed during the February 28 airstrikes. Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion are likely the start of a prolonged conflict with Iran, with the U.S.-Israel coalition seeking to destroy the Iranian government entirely. Given the ongoing military operations and the critical role the Assembly plays in selecting Iran's next supreme leader, the institution may face heightened security measures or dispersal of members to reduce vulnerability to strikes.

This description was generated by AI.

• Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that resolution requires credible reporting from a major news outlet explicitly confirming that one or more clerics died — not merely reporting that Israel and Iran disagree about casualties.