Will there be a catastrophic earthquake in Delhi, India in 2023?
resolved Jan 4

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📢Resolved to NO : Per Wiki Earthquakes In India

predicted NO

Can we get a more concrete definition of catastrophic please

predicted YES

@fiddledidee Open to suggestions.

predicted NO

@AlexanderRaymond Perhaps a specific richter scale value it has to reach, along with estimated cost to repair the damage?

IE Richter scale of 7.0 and 100 million in damage (just example I made up)

predicted YES

@Foxtrot What do you think the appropriate measurements for catastrophic would be? I think the dollar amount or life lost would be more appropriate than simply a measurement of the earthquake itself. There could be a large earthquake without much damage which would make it not a catastrophic event from a human perspective.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@AlexanderRaymond The last few terrible earthquakes in India seems to have a death toll of roughly 20000. How about >10000 or >10 billion USD in damages as criteria?

predicted YES

@fiddledidee I'll have to look at the numbers for earthquakes that were considered "catastrophic" and will get back to you with some more concrete numbers, but I'm guessing they will be around what you said. Before I make any declarations for how the market resolves I'll be sure to leave my opinion here for people to comment on and adjust as necessary. Trying to be as fair as possible.

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