I bought M30 of YES at 9% on this market:
https://manifold.markets/EsbenKran/will-kurzgesagt-release-a-video-on
I would like to cash out of the market at 15% (if it reaches that high) and take my small profit, but not invest in a stronger NO position.
I think that I should set up a limit order with a upper bound of 15%, but I don't know what M$ amount to put. Do I do M30 since that's what I put in? Is it something like M200 since M200*.15 = 30?
Resolves YES if a person explains in the comments of this market how to properly price my limit order to cleanly exit my position to my satisfaction.
Resolves NO if no one even tries or if the explanations are wrong or I'm not smart enough to understand.
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You're correct that you should put in a NO limit order at 15%.
The key thing is you want your current YES shares to be cancelled by the NO shares you'll get from the order.
You currently have 353 YES shares (roughly 30/0.09. Not exact because there's some rounding). So you want a limit order that gives you as close to 353 NO shares as possible. The calculation is (1 - 0.15) * 353, which is almost exactly 300.
You can check this as you're putting in the order. Before you submit it, it should say "max NO payout: M353".
Hope that helps. Let me know if you have questions! :)