Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?
76
1kṀ19k
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO

Criteria:

  • code must be written completely by AI with no human interventions

  • must be generated according to a free-form human-provided specification which permits arbitrary problem domain (i.e. not confined to a pre-selected domain)

  • code must confirm to the specification and meet quality standards of an expert human senior developer proficient in a given language and problem domain

  • at least 3000 non-trivial lines of code

  • programming languages like Java, Kotlin, C++, C# etc. Exclude "dynamic", "scripting" languages like Python, JavaScript, TypeScript, etc.

Why do we exclude language like JS? There's a huge amount of publicly accessible JS examples so it is harder to assess originality.

AI
Technical AI Timelines
AI Impacts
Programming
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ2,031
2Ṁ773
3Ṁ376
4Ṁ209
5Ṁ178

People are also trading

Will an AI system be able to fully refactor a 10k+ line codebase before 2026 ?
29% chance
Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?
98% chance
Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
83% chance
Will an algorithm be able to work on million-line codebases before 2026?
37% chance
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
80% chance
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
67% chance
Will AI/chatgpt technology be good enough to autoconvert matlab code to runnable python code by EOY 2025?
84% chance
Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
26% chance
By 2030, can we convert at least 10% of an AI's weights to C code, enhancing interpretability?
40% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy