[Manifold plays chess] 5.Bg5 dxc4 6.

Basic

Ṁ9337

resolved Oct 3

100%99.1%

0.0%Other

0.0%

Subsidy

0.0%

Qa4

0.0%

0.1%

resign

0.2%

Bh6

0.1%

Nd5

0.0%

Kd2

0.0%

Nb5

0.0%

Bc1

0.4%

Qb3

Your move!

d4 d5

c4 c6

Nc3 Nf6
Nf3 e6
Bg5 dxc4

Link to the game in lichess:

https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/rnbqkb1r/pp3ppp/2p1pn2/6B1/2pP4/2N2N2/PP2PPPP/R2QKB1R%20w%20KQkq%20-%200%206

You (Manifold) have been challenged to a game of chess! You'll be white playing me (Alex) a ~2000 lichess player who will not use any outside assistance.

After the market close I will generate a random number and the move corresponding to that percentage will be picked. For example, order the moves from highest percentage to lowest. Then to find a moves range you sum the percentages that are greater which give you the lower end of the range than add the percentage of the move itself to get the higher end of the range.

Here's the previous move and there is a new market for the result:

Oct 3, 6:00am: Random number between 1-999 is 904.. so e4 is the move.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Fun

#Manifold plays chess

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1,000

and

3.00

5 Comments

11 Holders

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whelp I just realized that the resolution criteria of these markets is very similar to a dollar auction. The only winning moves are not to play or go ALL IN

bongcloud setup

If we really wanted a weird market-driven tree search, we could spam conditional markets for every move ("Given Qa4, what is the probability white wins?"). Even for this pile of prediction market nerds I don't think we'd have enough volume to be effective... but maybe it would be fun?

@Tetraspace Actually let's not, I just noticed that even though we're Stockfish with a material advantage, Chaotic defectors like me are making it hard enough that there's only 25% (should calibrate it to 50%, so that we're on the edge of our seats).

@Tetraspace Let's be a little quirky

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