https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/rnbqkb1r/pp3ppp/2p1pn2/3p4/2PP4/2N2N2/PP2PPPP/R1BQKB1R%20w%20KQkq%20-%200%205

You (Manifold) have been challenged to a game of chess! You'll be white playing me (Alex) a ~2000 lichess player who will not use any outside assistance.

After the market close I will generate a random number and the move corresponding to that percentage will be picked. For example, order the moves from highest percentage to lowest. Then to find a moves range you sum the percentages that are greater which give you the lower end of the range than add the percentage of the move itself to get the higher end of the range.

Here's the previous move and there is a new market for the result.

 → [Manifold plays chess] 4. Nc3 Nf6 5.

Oct 2, 6:32am: Random number between 1-706 is... 326. Bg5 is choosen.

https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/manifold-plays-chess-move-1

The invisible hand of the market is playing as white, vs Alex as black. Alex claims to be rated ~2000 on lichess.

Resolves to "Yes" if we win, or "No" if Alex wins, or "Prob" at 50% in case of a draw, or "N/A" if the game is not complete and I judge that it's not likely to continue further.

I'll update the close date if it approaches and things are still going.