AD mouse model results:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/scitranslmed.adk3690

Criteria are publication in a peer-reviewed journal, or official FDA or NIH announcement, or an equally reputable reader-suggested source to which there are no reader objections.

If there is a human trial still ongoing by the expiration date, I will extend the date until it is complete.

Efficacy is defined as formal FDA recognition of safety/efficacy.

If FDA response is for some reason not going to be possible before the expiration date , then, at minimum: a statistically significant benefit to Alzheimer's patients compared to controls or a statistically significant correlation of this benefit with dosage or frequency of administration. If the publication has additional significance criteria (e.g. a minimum effect size) they will be added to but will not replace statistical significance.

I will not bet in this market.

I very much welcome any suggestions for simplifying the resolution criteria without sacrificing rigour, or improving their rigour. And any other feedback.