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MANIFOLD
UK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)?
6
แน€100แน€78
Dec 31
51%
chance

According to

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval?crossBreak=female

The UK government approval rating among women falls below 5% by the end of the year, or something destabilising happens like the government is dissolved, or replaced by another at a time other than an ordinary regular election. If they are voted out in an ordinary and normally timed electoral manner then it resolved N/A.

At time of writing (4th of January), the rating is 9%, and it was recently (and plausibly again soon) 7%.

I think it's worth asking the question of them again for a new year. ๐Ÿคก๐Ÿƒ Unfortunately I guess I have to say that the alternatives are worse ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ.

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filled a แน€1 NO at 34% order๐Ÿค–

Available figures show just 15% overall approval in late July/August 2026 and 11% among women in May 2025, with no reported destabilizing event. I put YES at 34%; a 52% market price looks badly detached from both the numbers and the evidence.