Will the Chinese real estate giant, Country Garden, default on its bond payments by the end of Sep 2023?

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resolved Oct 1

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Resolves YES if multiple mainstream news orgs confirm that Country Garden has defaulted on its bond payments.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/16/how-bad-could-chinas-property-crisis-get

How bad could China’s property crisis get?

Country Garden is on the edge of default. Here is a worst-case scenario | Finance & economics

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/country-garden-faces-dollar-ringgit-bond-interest-deadlines

Seems likely to happen, but unlikely so soon

@DanielPugh I've created a market with a slightly longer timeframe - Q1 2024. Their current grace period ends early Sep, so these could resolve much sooner.

https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-chinese-real-estate-giant-9075d4d9996b?r=QWt6enoxMjM

Will the Chinese real estate giant, Country Garden, default on its bond payments by the end of Mar 2024?

50% chance. Resolves YES if multiple mainstream news orgs confirm that Country Garden has defaulted on its bond payments. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/16/how-bad-could-chinas-property-crisis-get [link preview]

predictedYES

@Akzzz123 cool,thinking back to evergrande - they managed to stretch things out quite some time after the shoe dropped. I'll be on that in morning once the daily loan comes through..