Will Hong Kong-appointed liquidator of Evergrande be recognized by a mainland Chinese court before the end of 2025?
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2025
51%
chance

On 2024-01-29 Hong Kong court ordered liquidation of Chinese property giant Evergrande, see for example reporting by The Guardian. But most of Evergrande's assets are in mainland China, which is a different jurisdiction.

There is a mechanism established in 2021 to do this, as The Guardian reporting hints. It even worked in the past! With Google, I found a Deloitte China press release, The First Hong Kong Liquidation Proceedings Recognized by Chinese Mainland Court under New Mutual Recognition Framework. (Deloitte China was a liquidator.) This first happened on 2021-12-15.

Will this happen for Evergrande before the end of 2025?

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predicts NO

After a bit more search, I found a more recent article (2023-12-06) Full-steam Ahead for Mainland-Hong Kong Cooperation Mechanism to Recognise and Assist Insolvency Proceedings in Pilot Areas and Beyond from Mayer Brown, which should know what they are talking about.

According to the article, the key takeaway is that "The Cooperation Mechanism is now well established in Hong Kong". This is different from impression I got by reading The Guardian reporting, but I am willing to trust more specialized article over general reporting.

On the other hand, Evergrande is not a normal bankruptcy...

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