Will Ismail Haniyeh (Political leader of Hamas) be dead or captured by Israel by end of this year?
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

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bought Ṁ200 of NO
predicted NO

@Shump Israel has assassinated people in the Gulf before...

predicted NO

@nathanwei If it was that easy, Israel would have done it years ago.

predicted NO

@Shump Well I'm not sure they WANT to kill him. Post-10/7, there is a different calculus. I agree it's unlikely, but I wouldn't go to like 1% or anything.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

I hope so, but I doubt it. Still I'm maybe more like 30% than 22%. If hostage negotiations fail it should happen.

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