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same question? Arbitrage?

https://manifold.markets/AshiFriedberg/will-ismail-haniyeh-be-assassinated

Haniyed is confirmed to be in Qatar. Not sure how he would be expected to die: https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/war-2023/2023-11-20/ty-article-live/0000018b-e9af-d32d-abdb-efeff0ff0000?liveBlogItemId=1337971566#1337971566

@Shump Israel has assassinated people in the Gulf before...

@nathanwei If it was that easy, Israel would have done it years ago.

@Shump Well I'm not sure they WANT to kill him. Post-10/7, there is a different calculus. I agree it's unlikely, but I wouldn't go to like 1% or anything.

I hope so, but I doubt it. Still I'm maybe more like 30% than 22%. If hostage negotiations fail it should happen.