Just to clarify, what does "single day" mean exactly? Is previous close vs. open a "single day" difference? Is two consecutive open/close differences a "single day"? How do weekends factor in?

Also noting that Nvidia has had multiple 9.x% drops (e.g 9.29% between high and low on Aug 7th)

ha i was going to go short but @MichaelWheatley saw my comment and beat me to it

I just noticed the market had gone back up since last I shorted. Not only is five months a short time frame, but what if the crash takes...two days to happen?

Good point. SPY dropping 10% in a calendar day has only happened 4 times in the last 100 years. But if you narrowed the index to tech large caps that probably at least triples the chance and then if you cherrypick 3 companies that increases the chance even more (3x is a wild ass guess) so 36% chance that 3 cherrypicked tech companies drop 10% on the same day in a year, with large error bars around that percentage.

The last time the NASDAQ crashed more than 10% in a single day was on 16 March 2020.

All the biggest single-day price moves of the last couple decades.

>5% daily drawdowns

end of this year is such a short time horizon. I'd put this at >90% if it was 20 years

working backwards from 90% chance of a crash within 20 years, I get 10% chance of a crash within 1 year, or 5% chance of a crash in the remaining 6 months of this year. That's just an outside view of stock market crashes in general. Inside view is that unemployment is rising and the fed is cutting rates as the business cycle approaches a trough. Also that LLMs capabilities gains seem to be slowing down at a level that is still way too low to replace anyone.

10% drop is a lot

Not when you've been growing this fast. a 10% drop in NVDA would erase like, two weeks of progress.