Will I (Aella) find someone new to seriously date by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 60% or higher, and it's before the end of 2023, then this market will resolve YES. We don't have to have a 60% or higher estimate at the end of 2023 for this market to resolve YES, it just needs to happen at any point before the end of 2023.

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So how did this end? Guessing it's a no, because we haven't dated yet.

predicted YES
predicted YES

I believe in you and got good odds, give me them manefold bucks

bought Ṁ50 of YES


bought Ṁ100 of NO

she just can't bring her self to lower her standards to the market-clearing price

bought Ṁ60 of NO

@JonathanRay Or, less rudely, she has said herself that she will not compromise on her partner being polyamorous which really shrinks the dating pool.

predicted NO

37% implies >150millmarriages per year plus moving rather quickly. Seems unlikely considering the track record of the past 15 years. 0.85^15=0.087

predicted YES

@JonathanRay If you were predicting based on nothing but populational statistics sure but Aella is someone with a public presence that can be factored in. I consider the making of this very market evidence towards looking for serious relationships since it demonstrates its on the mind.

bought Ṁ65 of NO

@WarlockTiny I think this works the other way: aella has had many years of being famous and having a lot of dating options and hasn't made a lifetime partnership work yet. That she has a large public presence means unexpected new information that changes her status is less likely than for someone who doesn't get out much.

(She's also significantly over the average age of first marriage, which implies she accumulates micromarriages more slowly than average).