MANIFOLD
Who has more sex in long-term relationships: religious or non-religious people?
331
Ṁ1kṀ29k
resolved Jan 17
100%32%
No difference
37%
Religious
31%
Non-religious

In my relationships survey (n=57k), i ask

duestion: Do you practice a traditional religion?

tip: Such as Christianity, Judaism, Islam, etc., and not* including stuff like witchcraft.

No

Loosely/culturally

Yes

Devoutly/heavily

I also ask:

"On average, over the last six months, about how often do you and your partner have sex?"

The question is: Among people who report being in relationships 5 years or more, which group will have higher sex frequency: people who said "no" to the religion question, or people who said "Yes" or "Devoutly/heavily"?

Idk exactly the threshold I'd use to say it's 'equal', and I don't feel like figuring out an exact number to give right now. My usual threshold for correlations being worth reporting is r=.12 (tho i might not use this to measure the relationship idk).

I haven't looked at the results yet and don't know the answer myself. I might bet in this market but will stop betting once I look at the results.

I will do basic controls for stuff like age, gender, and whether or not people have kids. If there's any other very basic, obvious stuff to control for I haven't thought of, then I will include that too.

  • Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering using standard deviation of total responses as a method to determine the threshold for "equal" outcomes. The difference between religious and non-religious groups would need to be some fraction of that standard deviation to be considered meaningfully different (rather than equal).

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ3,070
2Ṁ1,692
3Ṁ1,632
4Ṁ1,144
5Ṁ980
Sort by:

sorry for taking forever to resolve this, my life kinda exploded and then i ended up procrastinating.

there was basically no diff for relationships 5+ years. there was a difference for relationships newer than 5 years, which was that nonreligious people reported having more sex.

In this I looked specifically at people between 22-32 and who had no kids.

@Aella was the answer different for the other age groups and/those with kids? Why did you pick to resolve based on only one on the groups?

@Aella ping

@Aella resolution? I hope things are better for you now IRL compared to 20d ago (your latest comment).

@Hakari her mom died

@AhronMaline Oh no that's so sad..

Any ETA on when this will resolve?

@AhronMaline oh man i'm sorry my life got hella insane and is still insane, i will try to resolve this next time i sit down with my data

@Aella Oh! I hope whatever's going on turns out well for you!

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 48% order

Betting on non-religious. For two reasons:

  1. I think people with unusually high libidos are less likely to remain religious, even if that's where they started.

  2. For religious people who attend church, that's one less morning free to stay in bed.

Are you factoring in consent/coercion? People (especially religious) aren't exactly going to be forward in admitting they might frequently have sex with their long term partners but only after exerting substantial pressure on them.

selection bias is gonna be nuts here

holy shit the options are so neck and neck

Please specify what you mean by "long-term", a decade or 3 decades

By long term I'm assuming between 5-10 years

bought Ṁ30 NO

Among people who report being in relationships 5 years or more

"long-term" is 5 years or more

How do you define “religion”? Is it just based on self-identification? The problem is that different societies/cultures have different standards of what counts as “religion”.

bought Ṁ75 NO

@Vesperstelo yes, also interesting is how religious the person is

@Vesperstelo, the description answers your question.

Sorry if this was posted elsewhere but how was this data gathered?

@StephenFowler28ac The question was asked, and the answer speculated, but no definitive answer was made yet.

@StephenFowler28ac Snowball sample; i made survey that gives people results, posted it on social media, it got shared around. It's also linked at the end of the Big Kink survey, which has been regularly capturing new ppl for years now (very good google SEO, going viral on tiktok, etc)

Usually when doing my own followers it caps out at 10k if i'm lucky, but more realistically like 5k. I would guess majority of people answering are not my followers.

The logical choice would be if it is not significant at the p = 0.05 level.

@LilyFleming everything is significant at the p=.05 level if you collect enough data. That doesn’t indicate a meaningful difference.

@MatthewKhoriaty Are you gesturing at the difference between statistical significance and practical significance, a la effect size? If a difference doesn't actually exist, gathering a lot more data shouldn't then allow us to reject the null hypothesis.

@Haiku In complex fields such as social science, the only variables that aren’t correlated are those that anti correlate. This is called the Crud Factor.

https://gwern.net/everything

@Haiku Enough data does allow us to reject any null. https://gwern.net/everything

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy