How many copies of my Good At Sex book will I sell in the first 6 months?
89
1.7K
5K
2025
1.3%
0-100
11%
100-500
26%
500-1000
7%
1000-1500
5%
1500-2000
5%
2000-2500
4%
2500-3000
5%
3000-5000
4%
5000-7000
4%
7000-10000
4%
10000-15000
4%
15000-20000
4%
20000-30000
3%
30000-40000
3%
40000-50000
10%
50000+

This is conditional on me actually publishing the book. If I do publish it, how many copies do you predict I'll end up selling in the first six months? Includes audiobook and kindle or whatever. Doesn't include copies I give away for free.

I currently have around 30,000 free subscribers on my substack.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

Are you going to post the expected release … date?!?! When you are ready to commit of course.

@JacksonWraight

Hot Sex all night, all nice
Hot Sex all night, all nice
Hot Sex all night, all nice
All night, all night, alright

@fire Earthquake worthy sex indeed.

@JacksonWraight Though no valcanos yet. The release date isn’t ready until all datasets are tuned to the annoying perfect taste 👅

whyyyy is 50k winning here? what's the reasoning?

@Aella For me it captures all the worlds in which the book goes totally viral and sells well. It's a controversial topic, it could be a book that really takes off.

when are you planning on publishing the book?

BOE Calcs

  • 192.6k Followers on twitter.

  • 96.3k after removing 50% which are probably bots / inactive.

  • 1% - 2% conversion rate gives a range of 963 - 1926.

  • I'm not feeling good about people buying 'books' in general these days, so I'll take the lowest option that overlaps with this range (500 - 1000)

(Either way best of luck with your book.)

@JackMcPherson I do have ~350k followers on reddit, ~260k on fetlife, ~170k on tiktok, ~50k on instagram, and ~120k or so on my nsfw twitter account. I think these are 'worth less' to me in terms of conversion tho

bought Ṁ50 50000+ YES

@Aella I’d guess that the Fetlife followers would have a higher conversion rate.

To me, it also depends how you market it: it’s a very unique book, with both good research and personal experience behind it, so if you do like rounds of TV/radio/podcast interviews, it could blow up beyond your followers.

@JackMcPherson

I'm not feeling good about people buying 'books' in general these days

This is pretty much the entire heuristic I'm using, 50,000 in six months is approximately NYT best-seller level and I don't any particular reason this should be too far out of normal book sales ranges. Although, if you believe a lot of book sales are for signalling reasons, maybe "Good At Sex" is an especially good purchase.

Title and description are inconsistent. 3 months or 6?

@AriZerner ty; fixed

did you decide whether you're self publishing or going the traditional route?

@shankypanky nope, this is helping me decide

@Aella depending on your views/goals I think the resolution may be wildly different depending on which option you go with. there are downsides to traditional publishing but the obvious upside is they have a network to connect you with and sell your book through. the tradeoff is that you'd likely sell more copies but may make less money and I'm not certain how many of the benefits you could offset by just having a great marketing team if you self publish. self publishing makes it easier to get the book actually published with more freedom but after that it's a ton of work - you have to do a lot of other legwork yourself/via a team you hire.

anyway all things you're already considering I'm sure but all relevant to the predictions?

bought Ṁ100 50000+ NO

@Aella How many copies did AskHole sell in 6mo?