By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?
Premium
19
Ṁ54932051
11%
2024
16%
2025
29%
2026
38%
2027
48%
2028
49%
2030
61%
2040
61%
2050
I will pay attention to the statement "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%" and occasionally report my beliefs if asked in the comments. This market resolves YES to all the years greater than or equal to the first year I report YES on the underlying statement.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
73% chance
In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?
57% chance
Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?
5% chance
Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
17% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
35% chance
Will Inner or Outer AI alignment be considered "mostly solved" first?
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
51% chance
Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
40% chance
By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?
15% chance
Will a Millenium problem be formally stated in a theorem prover by 2025
59% chance