Resolves YES if @AidenKim is publicly announced as a Thiel Fellow before the 2028.
1,000@AdamK I think his odds are fairly strong then.
Thiel Fellowship are actually surprisingly traditionally status-oriented. Dropping out of an institution like Berkeley strongly helps their narrative.
He has material evidence of 'get-shit-done'ness.
While the Thiel fellowship is widely reported to be highly selective, my understanding is that in at least some prior years they've struggled to hit their numbers, so have considered widening the age range of intake. I suspect the reported ~0.1% acceptance rate is largely PR / a function of drawing a really really large pool of unqualified candidates, akin to most SWE jobs that list on linkedin. I suspect that the acceptance rate for the subpopulation of qualified candidates is, to pull a number out of my ass, >30%.
Source: I'm acquainted with ~10 Thiel Fellows, although from much earlier batches (2015ish), so my views could be out of date.