Will a regular of c-Haus in Cambridge, MA (Lucas Chu's) win the Thiel Fellowship in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
8
90Ṁ135
2026
24%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

God how is this top in google results

bought Ṁ10 NO

2026 is a stretch because things can change pretty big in a year or two. But 2024 and 2025 prob no.

Given that of the 7 members of C-House, 4 have graduated, 2 have already dropped out, and I start college next fall (with no intent to drop-out), the chances of this resolving yes are absurdly low

People are also trading

Will someone from c-haus win a Medici grant by EOY2028?
47% chance
Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?
81% chance
Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?
32% chance
Will an Atlas Fellow become a Thiel Fellow by 2027?
70% chance
Will Nathan Cofnas lose his Leverhulme fellowship at the University of Cambridge?
18% chance
Will Alice Cai (from Harvard/augmentationlab.org) win Emergent Ventures by EOY 2025?
57% chance
Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?
41% chance
Will Willy Chertman win an Emergent Ventures fellowship before 2027?
48% chance
Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?
34% chance
Will Alia Abbas become a Thiel Fellow?
23% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy