Resolves YES if @AidenKim is publicly announced as a Thiel Fellow before the 2028.
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@AdamK I think his odds are fairly strong then.
Thiel Fellowship are actually surprisingly traditionally status-oriented. Dropping out of an institution like Berkeley strongly helps their narrative.
He has material evidence of 'get-shit-done'ness.
While the Thiel fellowship is widely reported to be highly selective, my understanding is that in at least some prior years they've struggled to hit their numbers, so have considered widening the age range of intake. I suspect the reported ~0.1% acceptance rate is largely PR / a function of drawing a really really large pool of unqualified candidates, akin to most SWE jobs that list on linkedin. I suspect that the acceptance rate for the subpopulation of qualified candidates is, to pull a number out of my ass, >30%.
Source: I'm acquainted with ~10 Thiel Fellows, although from much earlier batches (2015ish), so my views could be out of date.
@draaglom What do you consider to be a qualified candidate here? also curious if you have any thoughts to how useful the fellowship/network is compared to something like YC, or working at a top tier tech or quant firm
Qualified candidate: smart, high agency, "speaks the language", has done something unusual and interesting in their life already
Relative value: imo "useful" is a bit of a diffuse question. like obviously Thiel fellowship will be more useful if you wanna be a Startup Guy (gender neutral) and a top quant firm will be more useful if you wanna be a quant. but any of these things are obviously a huge advantage in life.
@draaglom fair in my head it has huge aura due to the alleged abnormal unicorn hit rate and because im pretty young and unconnected so easily impressed.
Do the ppl who get it feel like it's totally lifechanging and that the credential/network continually opens doors that are inaccessible to 90% of ppl in tech? or is it more that they're all talented and it's just another nice credential but not super dif. from anything else?
@CelebratedWhale I think it's valid for it to have huge aura. I think, reading back my original comment, it's accurate factually but the vibes are wrong in that it seems like I'm disparaging it or saying it's easy or something. That's not what I meant to communicate originally.
To rephrase my original comment:
- An acceptance rate that is very low (<1%) is not shocking for any process that can draw in a large number of candidates. Depending on how you count it, many tech hiring pipelines have similar acceptance rates. The hiring pipeline I ran for a relatively obscure London startup was probably 2% or less acceptance considered over the pool of all applicants considered broadly. People love to brag about this.
- The """true""" acceptance rate for a highly selected group can be much higher; people of a "sufficient quality" (defined however the fellowship defines it) are relatively rare such that they have previously accepted fewer people than they target accepting (to the best of my knowledge). So if you have good reason to think you're good enough (in their terms) your expected hit rate can be quite high.
On lifechangingness and those kinds of questions, have you considered asking a Thiel fellow about it? (I'll stress that I'm merely acquainted with some Thiel fellows, in the sense of mostly having met at parties or whatever).
@draaglom I appreciate the write-up that makes a lot of sense. I guess their standards must be pretty high (or maybe there's just very few good applicants)
Haha i don't know any Thiel Fellows personally. When i finish undergrad in a few weeks I'm hoping to get a work visa to America so maybe ill meet some :)
@CelebratedWhale consider that not knowing any is not inherently a blocker to speaking to them. Best of luck!