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MANIFOLD
How many galaxies will Leopold Aschenbrenner "own" in 2040?
2
Ṁ1kṀ96
2039
72%
0
30%
At least 1
20%
At least 1,000
12%
At least 1,000,000
7%
At least 1,000,000,000
3%
At least 10^15

Leopold Aschenbrenner wants to buy galaxies [1, 2]. Resolves based on the number of galaxies Leopold "owns" in 2040, however that is reasonably understood at the time. Generally speaking, someone can be said to "own" a future asset if they will have a significant ability to determine how it will be used (within certain bounds), and are assured that ability within a legal and economic structure that will reasonably aim to deliver and enforce it. A title with uncertain accessibility (for example, if there is uncertainty about whether the territory can be physically reached or will be unoccupied by the time it is reached) should ideally be weighted by the chance it will be accessed in whatever way is standard.

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