Prop resolves Yes if the CDC National Center for Health Statistics provisional mortality report issued in 2026 states that more US deaths from cancer occurred in 2025 than in 2024.
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
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This CDC report came out earlier than expected and points to Yes. Let me know if anyone sees it differently. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr044.pdf